Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite at Richmond

Will Martin Truex Jr. get his fourth Richmond win on Sunday?

Truex has won three of the past eight races at the 0.75-mile track and is the favorite to win on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA) ahead of Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson.

Truex has been incredibly good at Richmond since moving over to Joe Gibbs Racing before the 2019 season. Truex swept both Richmond races in 2019 and hasn’t finished lower than 11th in any of his eight starts at the track for JGR. That 11th-place finish came in the spring race this year after Truex had led 56 laps.

LOUDON, NH - JULY 17: Martin Truex, Jr (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing Reser's Fine Foods Toyota) is introduced to the fans before the Crayon 301 on July 17, 2023, at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, New Hampshire. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Martin Truex Jr. has three NASCAR Cup Series wins so far in 2023. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Larson won that spring race after leading the last 25 laps. He took over the lead with 25 laps to go from Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron thanks to a fast pit stop under caution.

Richmond is the 22nd of 26 regular season races on the Cup Series schedule and 11 drivers have won a race so far in 2023. That means five drivers are currently in the 16-driver playoffs via their position in the points standings.

The winless driver with the best odds to win at Richmond is Kevin Harvick at +900. Harvick won this race a season ago and sits eighth in the points standings. He’s a virtual lock to make the playoffs in his final Cup Series season even if he doesn’t get a win during the regular season.

Here’s what you need to know to bet Sunday’s race. All odds are from BetMGM.

The favorites

  • Martin Truex Jr. (+375)

  • Denny Hamlin (+500)

  • Kyle Larson (+600)

  • Christopher Bell (+800)

  • Kevin Harvick (+900)

  • William Byron (+900)

Both Hamlin and Harvick have four wins at Richmond. Harvick has 30 top-10 finishes in 44 starts while Hamlin has 21 in 33. Bell has the best average finish of any driver at Richmond with four top fives in six starts. Larson has two wins and three pole positions at Richmond while Byron has just one top-five finish in 10 starts.

Good mid-tier value

  • Chase Elliott (+1600)

  • Tyler Reddick (+1800)

Elliott is winless at Richmond but has five top fives in 14 starts. He’s finished in the top five in three of his last five starts at the track and hasn’t finished lower than 15th since he was 24th in the spring of 2017. Reddick has never finished in the top 10 at Richmond but we’re banking on him having a very fast car.

Don’t bet this driver

Richmond isn’t a great track for Blaney. He has three top-10 finishes in 14 starts and has never finished better than seventh.

Looking for a long shot?

Buescher finished third in the summer Richmond race a season ago and has been quietly very solid so far this season. He’ll likely make the playoffs and it wouldn’t be a total shock to see him or Roush Fenway Keselowski teammate Brad Keselowski get to victory lane before the season is over.